Commerce media is projected to account for 15.6% of global ad revenue in 2025, reaching $178.2bn and surpassing total TV ad revenue for the first time, according to WPP Media’s This Year, Next Year report. Total TV ad revenues are forecast to reach $167.4bn in 2025, with the channel’s share of global ad revenue expected to fall from 15.8% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2025.

The report, which sizes the advertising market on media owner revenue rather than advertiser spend, has added finance and travel media under commerce media for the first time. WPP divides the commerce channel into retail, travel services and financial services media, with retail media networks accounting for the majority of the segment.

Travel companies such as Expedia, Booking.com and TripAdvisor and financial companies like Klarna and PayPal are well positioned, holding first-party data through loyalty schemes and regular logins. Kate Scott-Dawkins, WPP Media’s global president of business intelligence, stated that commerce media is becoming very attractive to brands due to its performance-driven and measurable nature.

In the UK, retail media will surpass TV advertising in 2025, with the channel expected to grow 18.3% to reach £4.598bn, followed by 16.6% growth in 2026. Meanwhile, TV is expected to grow 0.9% in 2025 to £4.595bn, with stronger 3.4% growth in 2026 boosted by major sporting events including the FIFA World Cup.

However, the proliferation of retail media networks in recent years is now facing consolidation pressures. Advertisers are reducing the number of partners they work with to improve operational efficiency and focus spend on networks offering advanced measurement and attribution capabilities.

Incrementality measurement remains the sector’s biggest challenge. While commerce media can provide closed-loop attribution, questions persist over whether advertising on these platforms generates new demand or simply captures existing purchase intent.